AGWS - Sea Levels are Rising

This is the first in what will probably be many of a series on anthropogenic global warming science.

One way to divide AGWists is into the two areas of modeling and observable data. Computer modeling is based on the idea that you can computer model climate and from this predict what is going to happen in the future. All the computer models predict temperature increases from 1990 onwards in response to CO2 increases (Dr Roy Spencer - May 2) This in direct contradiction to the observed data (e.g. UAH satellite data) Computer modelers in general deal with this by asserting that the observed data must be wrong and it should be ignored (Dr Timothy Patterson).

Back to sea levels. The foremost expert on sea levels is without question is Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Chang, He has spent the last 35 years using any method he could to measure sea levels. His conclusions are that "the sea is not rising," he says. "It hasn't risen in 50 years." If there is any rise this century it will "not be more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm". (Christopher Booker - Interview).

In the latest report the IPCC has used the figure 2.3 mm per year rise in levels (still well under Al Gore's predictions) though until 1992 their own data showed no rise. First of all as an IPCC expert reviewer Dr Mörner was "astonished to find that not one of their 22 contributing authors on sea levels was a sea level specialist: not one". Worse the IPCC graph tilted upwards because the IPCC's favoured experts had drawn on the finding of a single tide-gauge in Hong Kong harbour showing a 2.3mm rise. The entire global sea-level projection was then adjusted upwards by a "corrective factor" of 2.3mm, because, as the IPCC scientists admitted, they "needed to show a trend"(ibid).

Also as a note. Until recently a "scientist" was not necessarily a person with a degree or formal qualification but an individual who dared to carry out their own research and investigation on a subject or area of interest. It has only been in more modern times that this has been formalized to include a piece of paper earned at an educational institution.

End of the science for today.